An article in the Christian Science Monitor highlights an interesting irony regarding the dithering over military action in Iraq.
“Already we see the huge international antiwar demonstrations having an impact in Iraq, in the end that kind of thing may make it more likely the US throws up its hands and decides we just have to do this,” says Stephen Baker, a retired admiral and senior analyst at the Center for Defense Information in Washington.
The thesis goes that if we make a good job of looking like we’re about to bomb Iraq to smithereens, we might actually scare Saddam into dissarming. As it is, with France, Germany, China and Russia all openly against military action, he is emboldened. Which makes it more likely that we’ll have to go to war in the end.
There is a precedent for using brinkmanship to get what we want; when Eisenhower said he would drop A-bombs on China in 1955 they stopped attacking Taiwan.
Posted by Rob Fisher as News at 6:13 PM EST
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Now that I’m driving to work every day, I see far more idiots on the road than I did when I only used my car for pleasure purposes like long distance drives to visit far away friends. Hence this occasional rant about how to annoy me on the road. I’m sure we’ll be up to #100 in no time.
Tonight when I drove home the motorway was almost completely empty. I had my own little bit of road all to myself. There was a car some distance behind hovering in the middle lane, but it didn’t seem to be approaching. I was doing 70 as I usually do on the short commute - no point in wearing the engine out for work.
It was clear the guy behind was unsure whether to overtake me or not. It’s often the case with these idiots that they have no idea how to modulate their speed to account for the cars around them, or even how to do anything at all but sit behind whoever’s in front and hope that they know what they’re doing. Eventually he decided to overtake, which he did slowly.
Before I knew it, he was signalling to come back in, a mere two car lengths in front of me. I thought it was a bit close, but surely soon he would pull away into the distance? Wrong. He slowed down to same speed as me. Leaving me with no option but to either overtake him back, or slow down to make the gap bigger. How thoughtless.
So if you want to annoy me on the road, tip #1 is to completely fail to respect that I might want to keep a safe following distance. That gap in front of me is not so that I have time to react if something scary happens up ahead, it’s for you to pull into. If I slow down to make the gap in front bigger, why not just overtake me and pull into it? It’s so inviting!
Posted by Rob Fisher as Driving at 8:26 PM EST
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You can now read my blog in cockney courtesy of The Dialectizer. Or Swedish Chef, or Redneck or Pig Latin or…
Perhaps this will finally make my writing worth reading!
Posted by Rob Fisher as Links at 2:55 PM EST
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Its potential applications are so wide ranging that nanotechnology could be even more controversial than genetic engineering. Thankfully we’re learning from experiences with biotechnology, and trying to head off the controversy before it becomes a real problem. Nanodot highlight a BBC news article about a study by the Joint Centre for Bioethics at the University of Toronto.
The study warns that since nanotechnology could have such a profound effect on our lives it is likely to provoke suspicion and fear. It suggests budgeting for research into the ethical issues, not just the science itself. If scientists show that they are considering the risks they are more likely to be trusted.
Currently not many people have heard of nanotechnology. It seems to me that engaging with the public is critically important if they are to be able to judge the risks. This might avoid the usual combination of ignorance and poor quality media reporting that hinders good decision making.
Posted by Rob Fisher as Nanotechnology at 3:50 PM EST
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For anyone still in doubt, Michael Drosnin’s Bible Code is thoroughly debunked in an article by David E. Thomas.
On a closely related note, here is a review of the book Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Posted by Rob Fisher as Imaginary Friends at 5:47 PM EST
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The archbishop of Westminster and the archbishop of Cantebury have issued a joint statement arguing that the moral case for war against Iraq has not been made.
Reading the emails of Iraqi exiles that featured in Tony Blair’s speech on Saturday, I’m not so sure. Iraqis, it seems, want a regime change in Iraq because of years of persecution, murders, and disappearances. The people of Iraq seem to be living in constant fear. What kind of life is that?
Obviously a war will cause civilian casualties, but that is often the price of freedom. I don’t think it matters whether there are weapons of mass destruction or not. Regime change in Iraq is a highly desirable cause on its own.
Posted by Rob Fisher as News at 10:36 AM EST
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Talking of Paul Graham, he has a number of essays on the subject of spam filtering including this one about how the use of Bayesian filters will be able to beat spam for good. These filters are so effective because they take into accout evidence than a mail is not spam, as well as evidence that it is. There is already some software available that uses these statistical techniques. It’s refreshing to see an article with an optimistic view about the end of spam. Not only that, but the optimism here seems well founded.
Also worth reading is his essay Filters vs. Blacklists which explains why previous attempts to end spam using blacklists have failed.
Posted by Rob Fisher as News at 9:47 PM EST
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I don’t normally like to link to things that are so pervasive (linked to by Slashdot, no less), but the essay Why Nerds are Unpopular by Paul Graham is so good that I couldn’t help myself. It touches on so much more than just the title subject. Here is a quote:
Why do people move to suburbia? To have kids! So no wonder it seemed boring and sterile. The whole place was a giant nursery, an artificial town created explicitly for the purpose of breeding children.
There is some fantastic insight here! And here is some more:
Adults can’t avoid seeing that teenage kids are tormented. So why don’t they do something about it? Because they blame it on puberty. The reason kids are so unhappy, adults tell themselves, is that monstrous new chemicals, hormones, are now coursing through their bloodstream and messing up everything. There’s nothing wrong with the system; it’s just inevitable that kids will be miserable at that age.
It’s arguably more applicable to American high schools than anywhere else, but as a British ex-nerd there are many aspects I can relate to.
Posted by Rob Fisher as Links at 3:04 PM EST
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The Kiwi Atheist’s blog looks very promising, with very well thought out and well written articles. I’ll be keeping an eye on it.
Posted by Rob Fisher as Imaginary Friends, Links at 1:54 PM EST
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I was at a wedding in France at the weekend, and a game of musical chairs was put on for the children. While watching it occurred to me that this game is full of valuable life lessons. Here are some that I saw the children at the wedding learning:
- Sometimes you need to bend the rules to get ahead. You can’t win if you’re not prepared to shove the smaller kids out of the way. At the very least you need to employ underhand tactics, like walking more slowly when you’re near a chair.
- The competition becomes harder as the game goes on. At first it’s easy, but the longer you stay in the higher the standard becomes.
- Life isn’t fair. If you’re beaten, it’s likely to be because someone else cheated, or was just bigger and stronger than you.
- At the end of the game it comes down to luck; it all depends on when the music stops.
- Sometimes you will get beaten by a girl.
Musical chairs is a brutal analogue of real life, and as such is a valuable learning tool. Children should be encouraged to play it as often as possible!
Posted by Rob Fisher as Introspection at 9:13 PM EST
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The Alan Bown Set Before and Beyond
